The chances of getting a Shard in a daily event are as follows:
| Completed runs | Chance of success | Chance of Failure |
|---|---|---|
| 1 run | 40% | 60% |
| 2 runs | 64% | 36% |
| 3 runs | ~78% | ~22% |
| 4 runs | ~87% | ~13% |
| 5 runs | ~92% | ~8% |
| 6 runs | ~95% | ~5% |
| 7 runs | ~97% | ~1 in 35 |
| 8 runs | ~98% | ~1 in 60 |
| 9 runs | >99% | `~1 in 100 |
| 10 runs | >99% | ~1 in 170 |
| 11 runs | >99% | ~1 in 280 |
| 12 runs | >99% | ~1 in 460 |