Last revised: 1st July 2022
For regular summon gates, the probability breakdown is:
- 70% normal (2 shards)
- 15% lucky (3 shards)
- 12% super lucky (5 shards)
- 3% ultra lucky (10 shards)
Weighted average is 2.75 shards/gate
With the current set of available heroes, the chances of any particular Open or Restricted hero in a regular summon gate is
- 1/16 (if you have both Jackbot and S.I.M.O. unlocked),
- 1/15 (if you have only one of them), or
- 1/14 (if you have neither)
In case of a Double Chance (for a hero other than Jackbot and S.I.M.O.) then the chance for the featured hero would be 2/15 vs 1/15 for the remaining 13, because these don’t have Jackbot/S.I.M.O. even if you have them unlocked
With Banner Summon for Premium heroes (the ones that unlock at 60 shards) the chance for the featured hero would be 1/15 (and 1/15 for the remaining 14).
I can’t quite recall if Premium heroes were offered on double chance (or even if they were, whether they’d be offered again), but if they did the chance for the featured hero would be 2/16 (and 1/16 for the remaining 14)